I recently came back from Vegas, and I think I got the omicron. Body flu symptoms are on a whole new level! Probably one of the worst flu symptoms I ever had. This is clearly different than your average body flu. An average body flu usually goes away for me after one cold sweat night. This one so far had me with cold sweat nights for 4 days. Very interesting! Im hanging in there and it seems I have crossed the worst of it. 🤞🤞

This market cycle will likely be for many an important investing experiences that will help mature the way you think about the markets.

Investing through such markets and reading about them is far different. You must ride these types of markets to truly understand how it feels. In investing I believe, experience is greater than what you read. That does not mean you can’t learn from other mistakes. However, wisdom taken from another, and wisdom seared through experience is different.

It is at times like these when you learn most about yourself. How much risk one may endure is never fully realized until tested.

Having a healthy philosophical view about your future will help you weather markets like this. Understanding the fundamental nature of human progress and why market cycles persist will also help you focus on the long term. It’s important not to allow the volatility of the markets to scare you away but help you realize the potential opportunities that may arise from the uncertainty that clouds over others.

Even what may seem like an obvious outcome based of the data presented today can all be thrown out with the bathwater due to unpredictable events in the world. Account for such unpredictability and leverage what you have control over such as your ability to save and increase your investments when valuations become more favorable.

The last time I checked, this year was the 3rd worst ytd market performance since 1928. The only two years worse was 1932 and 1962. So, this year has been brutal. Hang in there my friends.

Let’s get this update off my to do list! 🤧🤧

Notes

Commodity prices are coming down all across the board.
Fed believes it’s possible that rates can be between 3-3.5% by year end. I think there is a possibility for a pause on rate increases. So, left my expectations in tact for now.
I expect inflation to moderate towards the latter half of this year.
I expect fed funds rate to end the year at about 2%-2.5%.