This month has been a crazy month for stocks. The swings in the VIX and bounces of this magnitude was very interesting to behold. Lots of investors are torn on how inflation will be handled by the FED’s. Uncertainty is driving many investors to trade or reposition.

Many are expecting a slowdown of the economy as we enter a rising rate environment. And many seem to be hoping for a resolution to the ongoing war as they believe Putin is losing.

However, the lasting impact of the war and the ongoing issues with the c-virus will probably linger throughout this year and the next. Supply chain related issues are showing signs of improvement. Oil price shock will be a positive to inflation and a negative. I’m betting more helpful in this environment.

I view these turbulent times as an opportunity to build my positions for the long term.

Volatility and fear are your windows of opportunity. What window you enter may result in wide ranging outcomes but nevertheless they are opportunities.

Time to get this month’s updates in the books.

Notes

FED’s will not likely make 50 basis point hikes.
Not in the recession camp yet but if we do get one, I believe it would be a mild one.
I expect inflation to moderate towards the latter half of this year.
I expect 4 to 5 quarter basis point increase in interest rates by the end of this year. (Revised)